Below are the five leading brands from the Grocery and Gourmet Food L1 Amazon category we forecast will be the top performers come 2019 Amazon Prime Day. They've already demonstrated their marketing and supply chain prowess and now must capitalize on the Prime Day surge.
Each day for the last year we have collected and analyzed data on 100+ brands and 1,000+ ASINs in this Amazon L1 category to understand how well each brand performs for organic and paid share of voice, as well as revenue leakage due to availability issues and competition from 3Ps. Based on these metrics and their positioning relative to competing brands, we have forecasted their likely performance levels below.
On Prime Day, Hershey's Will Leverage Its Leadership Position [Jelly Beans & Gummy Candy]
Hershey's leads the Jelly Bean & Gummy Candy category. With proper execution, we forecast on Prime Day it will claim greater than it's historical 7.8% share of voice to reach 10%, but that it will lose 3.2 hours of sales on Prime Day.
- Use its proven success generating demand to capitalize on Prime Day.
- Rely on its moderate/high success fulfilling demand to steal market share.
- Leverage its advertising experience to move aggressively with promotions.
- Moderately high revenue leakage due to availability issues (8.5%) means Hershey's could lose 3.2 hours of sales during the 36 hours of Prime Day.
- Mars' higher share of voice, including 20% higher paid share of voice, means Hershey's should expect aggressive promotions from Mars, its #2 competitor.
Battle-tested KIND is Ready to Grab Its Share on Prime Day [Snack Food Bars]
KIND has the scars from battling General Mills, Kellogg's, and Pepsico to get to the top of the Snack Food Bars category. We expect KIND to increase it's share of voice marginally to beyond it's current 10.6%, and will experience 1.9 hours of lost sales during Prime Day.
- Capitalize on position as top category advertiser to further push paid share of voice on Prime Day.
- Ensure historical role as having top supply chain carries into Prime Day.
- Kellogg's, Pepsico and General Mills are strong advertisers - they may turn up promotions significantly and steal share from KIND.
- KIND's 5% revenue leakage due to availability issues is a moderate risk going into such a high demand day. Their forecasted 1.9 hours of lost sales is better than most, but still meaningful.
V8 Could Emerge as the Winner in the Highly Competitive Bottled Beverages, Water & Drink Mixes
V8 (Campbell's Soup) is already in a tight race with Tropicana (Pepsico), Izze (Pepsico) and Ocean Spray. V8's ability to compete despite spending significantly less on advertising means it could step up on Prime Day and grab more than it's normal 3.4%, perhaps up to 5% share of voice, while only losing 1.6 hours of sales.
- Historically, V8 has only 3.7% paid share of voice vs. 7% for Tropicana and 6% for Izze. There's likely promotional headroom here for V8 on Prime Day.
- Competing with two Pepsico brands with demonstrated willingness to pour on advertising spend (#1 and #2 rank in the category) is daunting.
Amazon's Operational Excellence Sets it Up For Prime Day Success [Coffee, Tea & Cocoa]
Amazon's flawless execution, not marketing muscle, won them top billing in the Coffee, Tea & Cocoa category. We expect them to experience a scant 0.2 hours of missed revenue, while also edging up its share of voice over its current 4.2% (quite high for this highly competitive category).
- Turn up advertising to Starbucks and Unilever levels. There's likely some headroom to grow here. And with such amazing supply chain execution any share of voice gains are likely to be captured.
- Having big spenders Starbucks, Unilever, McDonalds and Smucker floating within striking distance always puts your share of voice at risk.
Chickaboom's Superb Supply Chain and Advertising Will Enable it to Win Prime Day [Popcorn]
Angie's Boomchicapop (Conagra) brand is the king kernel in the popcorn category. It's only the #3 for share of voice in the category, but its supply chain execution is superb. Angie's has also acquired a whopping 13.8% paid share of voice, demonstrating an aggressive marketing stance heading into Prime Day.
Opportunities- Because their ad spend is high already, we expect only an incremental gain in share of voice to just north of its current 5.8%. Angie's can use its advertising savvy to predict how much headroom they have to grow, and anticipate exactly how much the surge could be.